Preparing for the recession: US10Y-US03M inversionThe inversion of US10Y-US03M is in my opinion the best recession indicator. Recession in 6 to 18 months.by T-r-XUpdated 3
US10Y - 10Y Bonds: And Reverse Forest RuuunLet's see: This was the chart I posted this year: We reached the U-MLH. This is the stretch to the upside. How ever, it could go further towards the Moon. But usually, if price get rejected at the MLH's, we see the opposite move. In this case to the downside, to the Centerline. This is a great opportunity, the second time this year in the 10Y Bonds, which I clearly will not miss. Additionally this would indicate a bounce in the index markets (S&P500, Nasdaq etc.).And if you pay attention to my S&P Chart, then you know that the Centerline is reached too there. So prepare for a possible bounce, even it's just temporarily.Shortby Tr8dingN3rdUpdated 2
US 10-year creeping higherWorth watching bond yields here as they have started to creep higher - could spell trouble for gold, silver, Nasdaq et. al. The 10-year has found some support from the upper end of the key support area between 3.50% to 3.65%. Although it is not an outright bullish signal for the 10-year yield, there's the possibility that it could stage a more meaningful recovery. Remember, Fed Chair Powell is speaking on Wednesday, and we have lots of US data to look forward to this week too. By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.comby FOREXcom7
US10YUS 10-Year Bond Yield. Another 'failed' topping structure or will yields finally make a solid move to the downside? #US10Yby techpers5
30min tf shows a C wave sell off on 2yr treasury yieldshort term bullish on the 20yr ETF, based on the 2yr/20yr yields temporary falling... Shortby moneyflow_traderUpdated 663
US10Y Still bearish at least on the short-termThe U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our top prediction a month ago: As you see, the Lower Highs 1D RSI Bearish Divergence, accurately projected the top and the price broke much lower than the 1D MA50. On a short-term horizon, as long as it fails to close above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we will be targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Only a break above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) can restore the bullish trend, towards the 4.330 High as it happened on June 01 2022. On the other hand a closing below the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line) would confirm the long-term trend switch from bullish to bearish. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE π, SUBSCRIBE β , SHARE π and COMMENT β if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME πββοΈπββοΈ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! ππ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- πΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈ π π π π π πShortby TradingShot1115
Us rates ... trend downUs rates has show some weakness now and due to it we are opening a short position Shortby diegotrader99880
US 10 YEAR BOND YIELD ANALYSISThe long term bond yields are falling. The 10 Year yield may find support at 3.0- 3.2 before consolidating and breaking out or reversing. 3.0 - 3.2 zone is previous support/resistance where the market has turned before.Shortby privatedvlper0
US05Y H8: UP TO PP, THEN DROP TO S1 - Looking for US5Y-Yield to move above DEC Monthly Pivot - Followed by a drop to DEC S1 = GAP - Dollar-Index should follow Yield and weaken after 1st week of DEC Shortby xtrader10
$TVC and $SPYSometimes looking at $TVC is a good leading indicator for market sentiments. Another one would be comparing it to $SPX or $SPY along with $DXYby huy2211
next cross of 10y-03y vs 10y03m would be recessionnext cross of 10y-03y vs 10y03m would be recession next cross of 10y-03y vs 10y03m would be recession next cross of 10y-03y vs 10y03m would be recessionby rohitsoni20012
US10YNot financial advice. The essence of investing & trading is the intelligent and patient preying on the greed, fear, impatience, addiction and ignorance of the majority. It's definitionally *GET OUT FROM THE STOCK MARKET*Shortby Crypt0poliS441
US10Y < SOFR = Hold my beer.US 10 year yields are again less than the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR.) The last time this happened was December of 2018, and things were papered over. Position accordingly. Idea credit to Reddit u/BoatSurfer600.by Scorpions99443
Bond Yields and RecessionsUnderstanding the basics of Bonds is very important to traders/investors. Yields (interest rates) are like gravity to other asset classes. The higher yields go the more gravity on other asset classes. Most are unaware of this simple rule bc most traders today have never had to deal with inflation and rising rates. I can't go too much more in explaining it all here so we will talk more about the chart. First off for those of you who subscribe to MMT out there you should know the theory that a central bank sets rates is simply wrong. The Free Market determines rates (Yield) based on economic conditions. Next pay attention to the red line EFFR (Effective FED Fund Rate) it is almost always chasing the FREE market up or down. Right off the bat what is obvious is that all rates have a tendency of bunching up before a recession. What is also obvious is that a recession has not occurred while FED is raising rates. Yet I hear many "experts" (people with large followings nothing more) call for a recession for months now. For months they have been horribly wrong. Again unaware of yet another very simple rule. I call them "FED PIVITOORS". What else is obvious? During a recession, short-term yields & longer-term yields spread out and remain so during the recovery. Then start to bunch up but still that in itself is not a recession. In fact, it is not until FED is done raising rates for a while that a recession follows and rates start to fan out and FED chases the free market by lowering short-term rates. While no single chart is the holy grail of analysis this particular chart right now is not in a recession. That should be clear to all. Saying that we are getting closer to a recession is okay, we must avoid saying "something bad will happen eventually" it's kinda useless info. At the same time if you wait to see the chart reflect a recession, well it will be too late in most cases. There are other things to look at when forecasting a recession that is much more helpful.by RealMacro1128
"Double top" for US10Y around Oct - Nov 2022"Double top" formed for US10Y around Oct - Nov 2022, dollar index follow closely with US10Y since 2022, which may indicate the Dollar index may "peak" for current stage. by SandyWang3
2y 10y spread re-steepeningAfter inversion, re-steepening signifies the impending materialization of the stress in the financial system and economy. Looks like this is just the beginning of this downturn and imo we're headed for a massive recession. Shortby ofcharacter0