10year and 2 year Yield Curve InversionThe 10-year and 2-year yields foreshadow a recession. However, the market top is indicated when the yield curve stops inverting around the green area.Longby ethmike3
Austrian 2120 Bond: Where Safety Meets Big OpportunityPremise The relationship between bond prices and interest rates is inverse, meaning that when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and vice versa. Interest rates are influenced by the interplay of money supply and demand in the market, along with the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB), which sets the key interest rates for the euro area. The euro area's economic performance in the third quarter of 2023 has been marked by a slowdown, with GDP contracting by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. This contraction can be attributed to elevated energy prices, inflationary pressures, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region. In response to rising inflation, which peaked at 4.3% in September 2023 but subsequently declined to 2.9% in October, the ECB has been raising interest rates since the summer of 2022. There is ongoing speculation among analysts regarding the future direction of ECB's interest rate policies. Some anticipate that the ECB will reduce interest rates in the first half of 2024, as inflationary pressures ease and the economic outlook remains lackluster. On the other hand, there are arguments suggesting that the ECB may maintain or even increase interest rates further. This is due to persisting concerns over inflation risks and the expectation of an economic recovery gaining traction in the latter half of 2024. The Idea Regardless of your position, it's undeniable that long-term government bonds are currently presenting historic opportunities. What I find to be a speculative yet highly secure option is the Austrian government bond, Austria Tf 0.85% Gn2120 Eur (AT0000A2HLC4). With a modified duration of approximately 40 and a face value of around 38, this price offers a potential capital gain that is exceptionally attractive, especially if the ECB starts discussing interest rate cuts. Given the current situation, establishing a position in this instrument provides a high-risk-to-reward ratio. For Europeans, there's no exchange rate risk since it's quoted in Euros. Moreover, we're talking about Austria, one of the safest countries with minimal risk of default. The idea is to enter at any price below 40 and patiently await the potential rate cut. Exiting the trade can be done in two ways: by monitoring the monthly oscillators and closing when it enters overbought territory or simply by following macroeconomic developments. Or probably something in the middle? (recommended) Whichever path you choose, this is a tantalizing opportunity that could yield returns reminiscent of "bitcoin", all while using an extremely secure investment vehicle.Longby Giamkra0
Gilt Limited Edition MatrixIn this simulated project: pivot points, rebounds, or bounces are expected where the price meets the shapes. The icons are potential price predictions or time stamps for potential exceptional events. Blue curved path can become support or resistance. If the price goes down where there are no drawings, a potential entry signal might appear before that at any of the elements in the drawing. Rectangles are potential turnaround points.Uby nenUpdated 2223
$US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out"The TVC:US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out as we observed a scenario where the momentum indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), had been showing bearish divergence with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. This indicated a potential weakening of the yield's upward momentum, despite higher prices initially. Subsequently, the divergence 'played out' as the 10-year Treasury yield indeed reversed its upward trend, aligning with the bearish divergence signal. This divergence resolution may have led to a shift in market sentiment or investment strategies, impacting various sectors and asset classes."Shortby AlgoTradeAlert6
10 years US Yield UP to 1.3%10 years US Yield UP to 1.3%,that position 2016.7,or 2020.2.at that time in 2016,FED pause Hike Rate in whole year.at sametime China supply Money to property, property price fly high in China.by iloveglUpdated 3
2 year yield still has a target at 5.50%Bulls still have a wave count supporting the final spiky move up in 2 year yield to 5.50%Longby CastAwayTrader2
The Bond Market is Pricing in a Collapse of The Yen Carry TradeThe spread between the US10Y and JP10Y has historically been a great leading indicator of contraction within the Yen Carry Trade and likely will be into the future. If we were to apply TA to it, we can see that the spread appears to be Double Topping and has formed a Bearish Shark at this top as the RSI breaks down and the MACD Diverges. If we are to take this as a warning, then we should expect this spread to go down significantly, and that would be accompanied by the contraction of the Carry Trade, leading to lower liquidity and signfiicantly tighter credit conditions and ultimately a depreciation in market pricing. I think we could see JPY and USD strength during this time but would avoid other currencies.Shortby RizeSenpai228
10 & 30 have short term topped since call on Oct 23GOOD MORNING! Didn't have time to post yesterday. Busy the entire day until I got home @ 9pm!\ 10 Yr #yield topped the day the original tweet was posted. 30 Yr yield topped the following day! #stocks #bonds TVC:TNX (See profile for more info)by ROYAL_OAK_INC2
10 minus 2 year Yield SpreadTime bomb... 1990-91 recession 2001 recession 2008-09 recession 2020 recession #recession #gold #spx #purchasingpowerLongby Badcharts1111
Possible bull flag? Pretty new to this. Looking for feedback to this idea. If breakout occurs, target is approximately the pole height. Longby lambokeys4
Pick your fib target. How far do Bonds crash?Inverse chart of US 10 year bond yields. 6.249% looks like near certainty. 8%, 10% & 12% are all on the table.Shortby RobBiddle6
Bank of Japan may further adjust its YCC policyGovernment bond yields are about to reach the 1% upper limit, and the Bank of Japan may further adjust its YCC policy. Market attention is focused on the actions the Bank of Japan will take regarding the 1% yield cap. On Tuesday of this week, the Asian economic calendar was filled with various important data releases, with the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan being the focus of traders. On the last trading day of the month, the Bank of Japan is expected to make a minor adjustment to its "Yield Curve Control" policy to effectively tighten monetary policy, which is significant for global markets and policies. This is followed by announcements from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. Japanese bond and currency markets: The BOJ may further adjust its YCC policy to allow the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to rise above 1%, and the Japanese yen has been strengthening for the second consecutive trading day, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level in a decade, approaching 0.89%. Market reactions: However, based on calculations of the real effective exchange rate (taking into account the impact of negative interest rates and other policies), the yen is the weakest it has been in over 50 years, attracting foreign buyers to purchase assets at relatively cheap prices. The Nikkei 225 stock index fell by 1%. These reactions reflect the market's uncertainty and tension regarding potential changes in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Japanese stock market: Initially, it saw a significant rise at the beginning of the year, driven by expectations of an improved economic outlook for Japan after years of stagnation. However, concerns about the Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy in the second half of the year have weighed on the market, leading to a decline in the Nikkei index. As the possibility of the BOJ abandoning its ultra-loose monetary policy has grown, the Nikkei 225 has fallen by 3.6% this month. However, due to many investors betting on the resurgence of the Japanese economy after decades of stagnation, the Nikkei 225 saw an astonishing 27% increase from January to June, reaching a high of nearly 34,000 points. Market reactions: This attractiveness of the Japanese stock market to investors is due to factors such as negative interest rates, the large-scale holdings of Japanese government bonds by the Bank of Japan, and the depreciation of the yen. Japanese inflation: Inflation in Japan has begun to rise and has exceeded 2%, which is a significant development considering Japan's long-standing struggle with deflation."by financeporter5
US 10-year yield topped out?The US 10-year yield is showing signs of topping out after recently touching a 16-year high just above 5.00%. It’s still too early to confirm that long-term yields have topped out but given the entrenched inflation, risk-off sentiment and growing US government debt, US long-term yields will probably remain elevated until the Fed’s interest rate policy becomes clearer. Yields of 4.80% is the first level of support and a break below this level will allow yields to ease lower towards 4.50%. There is also a degree of divergence on the RSI that I'm keeping my eye on.by Goose964
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting FOMCThe US Treasury yields eased a bit during the previous week, as inflation data are showing further relaxation in inflation figures. The 10Y US benchmark tested 5.0% level at the start of the previous week, however, the week ended at level of 4.83%. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for November 1st, but current expectations are that the Fed will not further increase interest rates due to the latest posted inflation figures. However, Fed Chair Powell's statement after the meeting will be closely watched, which might bring some volatility back in Treasury yields. The 10Y Treasury yields will start the week ahead by testing 4.8% level. At this point on charts, there is no indication that yields have opted to return to the levels of 5.0% and above, in which sense, some further relaxation to the downside is probable. In this case, 4.6% might be a probable target and a short stop on the road toward 4.4% in the weeks to come. by XBTFX17
10 Year wants 5%...at a minimumDo you really need to ask if interest rates have topped out? Head & Shoulders patterns at tops and bottoms are generally spot on...this Inverse H&S pattern occurred at a bottom, clearly broke out from the neckline and just wants 5%...at a minimum. "Don't fight the Fed" The Fed is not going to pivot to the downside anytime soon...why would they? What makes anyone think this is on the horizon? Here are the 3 things Powell stated would need to happen for a pause (not a pivot ) at Jackson Hole: 1. Lower Growth 2. Softening Labor Market 3. Inflation on pace to 2%. 2022 Q2 vs. Q3 GDP came in positive and much stronger than expected, Jobs reports remain hot and inflation isn't anywhere near 2%. So at this point, we can't even check off any boxes for a possible pause in rate hikes let alone a pivot . In addition, Powell hasn't really wavered in his statements since Covid, he's been pretty straightforward, so why would he all of a sudden change his behavior? Longby VixtineUpdated 101029
Raising Rates Here Will Blow Japan Up. Blowing Up US Yields Up coming Federal Reserve meeting, there's still underlying inflation in the USA but the amount of interest on debt + Japan buying US debt while their currency is almost completely free falling. Would be one of the worst fiscal policy disasters since 2009. Looking at Japan's society they're completely clueless of how close they are to blowing up. by FederalXBT3
Uk rates TREND DOWNHas inflation peaked in uk? Based on rates markets YES... FOR NOW... uk rates moving down also inflation! Good for uk!Shortby diegotrader99880
1 & 2 Yr Yield look like they're running out of steamGOOD MORNING! These will be DAILY charts but what we really need to see is how the week will close for all of these (this was thread on X) TVC:DXY & TVC:TNX both look like they're running out of steam. The #Dollar does seem to be fighting this break. 30YR Treasury, read above statement. 1YR stopped going up long ago. Are 2 Yr #Yields finally breaking?by ROYAL_OAK_INC2
US10Y: Channel Up intact but first time on a Bearish Divergence.US10Y continues to rise inside a long term Channel Up, with its 1D technical outlook bullish (RSI = 57.618, MACD = 29.942, MACD = 0.116). The 1D RSI though is for the first time in the recent months under a LH bearish divergence so for the first time the probabilities for a bearish reversal get stronger. Consequently, if the price crosses under the Channel's bottom, we will see and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 4.600). Until then, we will but on the first 1D candle that closes under the S1 level, aiming at a +10.70% rise (TP = 5.185). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##by InvestingScope7
10YR Treasury to Resume Rise Post-FedThe 10yr has taken a break in the past couple days off it's highs. This is normal but and happens regularly in the relentless overall path upwards in rates. The Fed has made all the signals that they are blind to the supply and demand issues of treasuries and willing to allow the market to do what it will as long as it results in less inflation. Chairman Powell in his September 26th speech stated that he still does not believe rates are restrictive enough and with a 4.9% GDP - although questionable at best - he will likely continue his hawkish tone in the November 1st meeting. Once the market realizes there will be another period in which no help is coming - along with a massive issuance of treasuries coming in November and in the line up for 2024 - rates will continue to rise into the end of the year. Target is 5.5% by EOY. I expect it to be choppy, but we won't be stopping here at 5%. We broke about the blue horizontal line which is a Gann fan dating back to 1982's peak in rates. This is the first time in 40 years we've risen above this line and we've stayed over it. The pace higher will continue until something breaks or the Fed changes tone on their QT policy. No one wants our treasuries - Japan, China, etc. The Fed isn't buying and Yellen keeps adding billions more to the market weekly. Important dates are November 8th and 9th where the 10 year and 30 year auctions take place. A bad auction could be the onset of the rise if the Fed doesn't provide that on Nov 1.Longby euphoricMeerka497906
Bund Short Term MatrixA small simple project with some ideas for potential future scenarios. Icons are simulated potential price predictions. Rectangles can become zones of influence for the price action. Pivot points can occur around the time stamps. (Previous pivot points marked on the past price action).by nenUpdated 447
When in doubt zoom out! 10 year likely falls to 4.73% next week giving stocks a reversal opportunity to trade back above 4,200. B/C phase currently getting underway. TIMBERRRR Shortby DailyMarketMovements3