citsvar

citsvar Updated 

Pretty cool feature. You can use the 9month moving average in S5TH (spx stocks above the 200dma) to time the market cycle. Figure out the upward momentum (with help of game theory and TNX cycle). In practice and theory peoples options should be predictable because everyone act in their self-interest, seeking safety (hypothetical riskfree) and potential. I use...

citsvar Updated 

I think something like this make sense? We are at a 1st leg or wave of impulse, that is led by early adapters. 2nd leg up would be BTC outperforming SPX. 3rd wave would be a market chop w/ still some opportunities. 1st wave -> buy when it's cheap (bellow 70k crowd). Then comes rally to 120-150k. Before it becomes too expensive. 2nd and 3rd wave are led by ppl...

citsvar Updated 

RIG monthly back-tests, high probability using game theory (and macro/b-cycle). Price action following.. Self explanatory.

citsvar Updated 

experimenting w/ macd indicator. connecting trend for SMA. Crude oil see if it has any predictive properties

citsvar

the closer Weekly BB to resistance, the better odds for VIX break out. Whilst everything is possible, I don't think it has the power or potential to break out. TLT feels like bottoming somewhere this summer? depends on the inflation metrics. But FED itself believes inflation is coming down. Often these one-time events are bought by the smart money. Depends if...

citsvar Updated 

Typical liquidity cycle is 5-6 years long (65m). Buy bitcoin before an upswing (or end of QT) and sell when liquidity tightens. Macro is the best way to analyze markets? Adjust your stakes based on position of the cycle. Markets can have risk-on, risk-off episodes. Where Bitcoin is a risk-on asset. Use 10Y-02Y for guidance.

citsvar

Looking back, commodities had a high conviction in february based on a longterm trend. Combining macd and BB break out. Markets have either risk-on sentiment or defensive. During risk-on phase people want to put money to work, there is too much money. During risk-off or defensive, people want money and safety. Assets become too expensive. Bitcoin rallies...

citsvar Updated 

high convenience entries for Gold using GOLD/SPX, macd + BB. 2024: feb, march 2020: jan 2022: june (resistance)

citsvar

In 26th dec, there was a high probability weakness in IWM based on this graph. Top of BB's and impulse has no potential, yet important resistance/break out. //rising TNX is bad for cyclicals or small caps.

citsvar Updated 

High probability entries using TNX trend, macd and BB. Broad market, cyclicals basics. price and macd divergence bearish. bullish if macd is at support and BB is at support/breakout. can combine w/ the trend lines? tightening BB means accumulation, break outs. just for fun and learning purposes. //stay w/ the dominant trend.

citsvar Updated 

Solar stocks follow energy prices (crude oil) and AMEX:USO (oil etf) is about to break out. I read that chinese are outcompeting the west in cheaper solar products. ie NYSE:JKS TNX is at bull market, crude oil and yields correlate (not sure which one cause the other). I look at everything trough probabilities since nothing is ever known. Stocks do bad when...

citsvar

ie minimize risk by buying positions when both MAs(price action) fits macd potential. Divergence is bearish. maximize gains by ONLY buying good positions.

citsvar

Looking back, high probability positions buying RIG using macd and fib (50%). Following OSX sector, XLE. XLE/SPY.

citsvar

building positions with macd and fibonacci (50% break out). w/ all the fundamental reasons:) rising inflation theme. Bullish TNX momentum etc. u could buy big oil, oil drillers or NRGU. Beginning at feb or march; XOM was +15%. high probability.

citsvar Updated 

50% (fib) is a motivational driver. 60% motivates. 100% motivates.. and out of drivers. people make up stories and reasons why something runs, with the PT's and so on? I find Fibonacci to be convenient? (ie fib shows you the strength of trend, that u cant fake. since it's math)

citsvar Updated 

It's obviously easy looking backwards. Using 3mos trend and longterm cycles, customized macd. Lowest risk with best reward. It's probably what the smart money is using anyway. Trend is 45 degrees, so you dont need re-tests.

citsvar Updated 

What we know? Oil is likely bullish in 2nd Half (24'). BTC leads the small caps. TNX usually works as a head wind (and has took a pause). Rate cuts are very bullish for small caps and financials benefit in this environment? technically; the 20dma works as a driver. 50dma and 200dma just gives you context. You can add MACD to confirm things. Im speculating that...

citsvar

Worldwide, 90days, search trend in Google for bitcoin (red arrows). Orange arrows represent " bitcoin use case ", ie the educated investor? It shows you the mainstream peak euphoria, enthusiasm or fear , usually at market extremes? Highest search volume coincides with trade volume. Other indicator for "hype" would be bitcoin hashtag in twitter/X....