QQQ Momentum is back -- 15% rally?It looks like momentum is back and QQQ is getting ready to break out of the trading channel. Based on the COVID rally, I think we have a chance to add another 15%. Longby Dr_RobotoUpdated 121217
Probability Blueprint: Building a Winning Trading StrategyUnderstanding Probability in Trading Probability is a fundamental tool in assessing the success of a trading system and making informed decisions. In simple terms, probability tells us how often we can expect a system to succeed relative to the total number of trades executed. Imagine you have a trading system with specific rules that are repeated over and over again. Each time we apply these rules and execute a trade, we're making an attempt. The probability of success is calculated by dividing the number of successful trades by the total number of attempts, giving us a kind of "success rate" or probability of success. It's important to understand that a good measure of probability is only achieved after a large number of individual trades. It's akin to flipping a coin many times and counting how many times it lands on heads. The more flips you make, the more accurate your estimate of the probability of the coin landing heads on the next flip becomes. Probability also helps us anticipate the future performance of our trading system. Imagine that individual observations of gains and losses are the input for this process. Statistical inference allows us to predict the future value of our account based on past results. The intuitive concept of probability is simple but has significant implications in trading because it allows us to quantify randomness, essentially enabling us to eliminate uncertainty from our business. Here it's important to differentiate between the uncertainty of the outcome of a single trade and the certainty of the average result projected into the future. Since probability represents the average likelihood of an event occurring after numerous repetitions, considering the variability of individual observations, it allows us to estimate our potential profit or loss, establishing upper and lower limits of our returns and providing insight into the future performance of our trading system. In summary, probability in trading is a powerful tool that helps us evaluate the success of our system and make informed decisions. The better we understand probability, the better equipped we will be to manage our risk and achieve our trading goals. Educationby Carlos_F_4440
$SPY overall bearish until sub 320I'm not a fundamental type of guy, I just look at what the chart give me, and as far as I see it from a Technical analyst perspective, this is nothing more but a simple ABC corrective wave from the super extended bull run we had previously. (Thus put the market in a bear market) We could either come back up to the 420 area to clear the shorts which would complete the B Wave, Giving us the opportunity for a easy short all the way to the .618 retracement level which would put is at sub 320 for the rest of the year. the other Scenario is we could reject the 400 area and come down to the 380 area and crab there before legging down again. Either way I am Micro bullish but overall bearish for the rest of this year. FOMC Tomorrow so hopefully we can start seeing some Acceleration in the charts.Shortby TrellTradesUpdated 228
XLV is shaping falling wedgeBullish context: weekly uptrend Price position: near last weekly trend low Pattern: four consecutive red days with little upthrust (progression of lows) It looks like previous weekly consolidation area is providing support, and bears are too exhausted to break through it now. This provides an opportunity for a long play. An example of possible trade is shown on the chart. It is important that today closes above 138.6, otherwise, setup is invalidated Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.Longby hermes_trismeUpdated 0
ARKK Elliot Wave ABC CorrectionARKK started its rally in November 2023 and reached $54.52 in December 2023. Since this date, according to Elliot Wave Analysis, it may be making an ABC correction. ARKK, which made the A wave by falling to $ 44.63, then rallied to $52.06 with the B corrective wave. As long as ARKK stays below $52.06, ARKK may be making wave C. At the end of this movement, it may fall between $40.35 and $42.59. Shortby selmanduatepeUpdated 0
IWM | Incoming Bull Run | LONGiShares Russell 2000 ETF seeks to track the investment results of the Russell 2000 Index, which measures the performance of the small-capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market. The fund generally invests at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index (i.e., depositary receipts representing securities of the underlying index) and may invest up to 20% of its assets in certain futures, options and swap contracts, cash and cash equivalents.Longby DivergenceSeekerUpdated 337
slvlooking at the monthly silver chart #sllv #silver as a major measured move is at play Longby awakensoul_3692
TLTWe have a nice convergence on week chart. Normally, bonds start rise half year before recession, so I expect in next 2-4 weeks it will start rising. 1 target - 115$ 2 target - 121$ 3 target - 135$ But it`s long term investing - 180-360days, so better to wait when it will start rise.Longby bohdanpolishchukUpdated 1114
LIT ETF updateStill in the Red for this ETF, a little disappointing since Electric vehicles will need lots of lithium. I will want to buy more at later stage when I see an uptick of sales of EV globally.The adoption rate is not as high as many expected with infrastructure, conversion, batteries, etc issues still hanging. I am looking at end 2024 to early Q1 2025 to review this chart again......by dchua19690
$SPY April 17, 2024AMEX:SPY April 17, 2024 15 Minutes. Consolidation day. Today is Wednesday. I am expecting a one sided move. For the fall 506.5 to 502.61, AMEX:SPY retraced 78% and fell at close. For the two lows 502.43 and 502.22 we have oscillator divergence. I believe the uptrend for that divergence is over from 502.2 to 506. Today action will be above 507 or below 502. My upside target is limited to 509-510 levels. My downside target is 497-500. I prefer to short at the moment. I generally go long ony when AMEX:SPY is above all moving averages. Shortby RiderTrader116
A fun look at SPY's correctionSo I took the log scale of SPY and copied the pattern of our august correction and placed it on top of April, I then added the Ichimoku cloud and it looks like the pattern would be bouncing at support and resistance and bottom at a relatively reasonable point around 470. I expected a bounce at some point because we aren't going to go straight down, so I wanted to get an idea of what it would look like if we replicated the previous drop. Based on today's price action I do not feel that we will be bouncing quite yet, I think we have room to fall perhaps to 495 before a bounce. I would have expected a bit more upside today if this was really a local bottom, it seems like the market was a bit too flat after a price discount. I think there is still some eagerness to sell. Just something to look at going into the coming months. :)Shortby MikeSpy0
SPY: Fall to $486-495?SPY looks set to close below the SMA 20 with an RSI < 50, which isn't great. Just getting an overall toppy feeling and expect a correction to the $486-495 mark if there's a break of the highlighted volume node. CPI was also hot so that weakens any idea of a rate cut this year. Anything can happen and I'm not looking for a short yet, but if there's some more downward RSI momentum I could be convinced. GLShortby khannan99Updated 1
Long Small Caps via TNATok a small long position on small caps by buying shares of TNA. Very small position.Longby SPY_Trader0
CYCLE LOW 4/15 4/17 golden ratio and spiral f9 4/16The chart is that of the DIA .This chart was telling me that the market was set for the decline right into the VIX cycle PEAK due 4/15/4/17 I have now moved to a bullish view that the first leg down is ending NOW and that Both wave count point to a rally to start from today and I have moved back into a 50 % net long CALLS next cycle turn is may 6thby wavetimer2
SPY - Selling FearSold 490 puts for 5/3/24 expiration, with 17 DTE. We may touch it, but doubtful. Also short 530 calls, but I sold them with 28 DTE, whenever that was. Almost out of juice at this point, might buy them back to lock in my gain and free up some capital. by SPY_Trader1
Calls QQQJust bought some call as shown. I think is going to bounce hard. I might sell it tomorrow. TP 435 ish. Longby ArturoL2
$tlt What if this the Right shoulder?This could be forming a H&S bottom. Zero talk about it. Could reflation move be peaking? Are we in a recession or soon to be? by shawnsyx68114
HYG broke its' 200 mda - RUT is following HYG downHYG broke its' 200 mda - RUT is following HYG down. RUT will likely follow it through the 200mda unless the Plunge Protection Team at the Federal Reserve comes to save it. Shortby grumpa061
$SPY Head & Shoulders formationhypothetical expectation on SPY - head and shoulders before the big drop?Shortby adamivori1
1 Day Tue 4/16/2024Downward channel since last 2 weeks, last 2 candles are Bearish - Current candle is Bearish and making lower lows. Can bounce off lower channel, however over all trend is lower low.Shortby rams1081
SLV remain long term bearishThe shooting star candle on the weekly last week points to weakness at least in the short term. The question is: is this just a short-term pullback (blue arrow) or it's the top for a long-term correction (yellow arrow)? Looking at the RSI on the monthly and weekly, it has never taken the top of the peak and the rally from the bottom has been in 3 waves. I highly suspect that this is just a wxy corrective bounce and is the beginning of a long-term pullback. But we should also watch TVC:DXY by then to see if it continues to go upShortby TraderBwater0
SPY - Bullish ScenarioDon't count the Fed out just yet. They are good at blowing bubbles, especially with a major election near at hand. While many Fed members have backed down on immediate rate cuts, some say that the Fed has no choice but to lower rates to prevent a major liquidity crisis. With this in mind, our current move stemming from October 2023 might be an extended wave 1 with wave 2 in process, moving down to the bottom of the channel around 495. A wave 3 measured move of 1.618 could push prices to near 700. This would be near a 2.618 measured move of a larger Wave 3 that also began in October 2023. While many are looking for a major Wave C correction that will take prices below the October 2022 low, not likely in an election year. Longby AssetDesign0